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Constituency Review Submission from Rory Hogan

Rory Hogan

Submission ID: S519

Date

10/05/2023

Constituency

Wexford

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Wexford Constituency

I would like to commission to take account of the following. I believe that two viable solutions for dealing with the change in population for Wexford are as follows. The first option would

be to keep Wexford as a 5-seat constituency (losing part of the constituency) to another constituency. The second option would be to maintain county boundaries by splitting the county into two 3-seat constituencies.

I will now demonstrate the feasibility of these suggestions by running through the numbers. Wexford has a population of 163,527 according to the preliminary census data from the 2022 census. If we now consider the potential size of the Dáil being consider by the commission, we get the following table.

  Size of Dáil  Seats
  171  5.46
  172  5.49
  173  5.52
  174  5.55
  175  5.59
  176  5.62
  177  5.65
  178  5.68
  179  5.71
  180  5.75
  181  5.78

This table shows the number of seats Wexford deserves at each Dáil size being considered. If we assume the 5% variance is to be maintained by the commission we can see the 5-seat option is not possible under any circumstances.

Five Seat Option:

To form a valid 5-seat constituency, Wexford will have to lose some of its population to a neighbouring constituency/county. Unless the commission accepts an unprecedented value for the variance. For example at 177 seats, if Wexford was to maintain its county boundaries and remain a 5-seat constituency its variance would be 7.43%.

  Seats  Min  Max
  171  6000  20800
  172  6800  21600
  173  8000  22400
  174  8800  23200
  175  9600  24000
  176  10400  24800
  177  11200  25600
  178  12000  26400
  179  12800  27200
  180  13600  28000
  181  14400  28800

This table shows approximately the minimum and maximum number of people that would need to be transferred out of Wexford such that a valid 5-seat constituency can for each size Dáil being considered. Once the value of the max is exceeded then a valid  5-seat constituency can no longer form and the min value must be reached for a valid 5-seat constituency to be formed.

Two Three Seat Option:

We can avoid breaking the county boundaries at 179-181 seats, by forming approximately even two 3-seat constituencies. The following table demonstrates, by showing the variance for each size Dáil being considered. As we can see at 179 the value for the variance falls within the 5% value.

  Stats  Seats  Variance
  171  2.73  -9.04%
  172  2.74  -8.51%
  173  2.76  -7.97%
  174  2.78  -7.44%
  175  2.79  -6.91%
  176  2.81  -6.38%
  177  2.82  -5.85%
  178  2.84  -5.31%
  179  2.86  -4.78%
  180  2.87  -4.25%
  181  2.89  -3.72%

We would recommend a North and South divide, based on the population distribution, feeder schools’,demographics, shopping habits, sports club membership, and commuting patterns. By considering population, education,recreational activities, and commuting, we can ensure a balanced and well-rounded division that addresses the unique needs of both the North and South regions.

An east west divide based on LEAs would create a disjoined constituency when looking at how people go about their daily life. This is reflected in if a TD was to travel from Enniscorthy to Rosslare strand ,they would naturally have to travel approximately 20 km through the east constituency to reconnect with their voters in Rosslare. It would also mean the Rosslare district LEA is not contiguous with the Enniscorthy LEA, which would have the largest urbanised centre within the constituency.

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